A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
